Pirineos, Vol 169 (2014)

Respuesta hidrológica del Pirineo central al cambio ambiental proyectado para el siglo XXI


https://doi.org/10.3989/Pirineos.2014.169004

J. I. López-Moreno
Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología, CSIC, España

S. M. Vicente-Serrano
Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología, CSIC, España

J. Zabalza
Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología, CSIC, España

J. Revuelto
Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología, CSIC, España

M. Gilaberte
Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología, CSIC, España

C. Azorín-Molina
Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología, CSIC, España

E. Morán-Tejeda
C3I-Climate Change and Climate Impacts Unit.University Geneva, Suiza

J. M. García-Ruiz
Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología, CSIC, España

C. Tague
University of Santa Barbara, Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, Estados Unidos

Resumen


Se han simulado los caudales de cinco cabeceras de ríos en los Pirineos centrales españoles, considerando diferentes escenarios de cambio climático y de uso del suelo. Los caudales fueron simulados utilizando el modelo hidroecológico RHESSys (Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System). Los resultados muestran que los cambios proyectados por un conjunto de modelos climáticos regionales en precipitaciones y temperaturas en el siglo XXI podrían causar una disminución del caudal anual entre el 13% y el 23%, dependiendo de la cuenca considerada. Cuando se añade a los efectos del cambio climático el efecto del aumento de la cubierta forestal en las cuencas, la disminución de los caudales anuales oscila entre el 19% y el 32%, dependiendo de la cuenca estudiada. Los mayores cambios hidrológicos se producirían a principios de primavera, verano y otoño, cuando la disminución puede superar el 40% respecto a los valores actuales. El invierno es la estación menos afectada como consecuencia del aumento de la escorrentía debido a una reducción del agua acumulada en forma de nieve y a un inicio más temprano de su fusión, así como por que durante los meses fríos el consumo de agua por parte de la vegetación es menor. La magnitud del cambio hidrológico, resultado de los escenarios de cambio ambiental, puede afectar seriamente a la gestión de los recursos hídricos y a las comunidades vegetales del Pirineo central, así como a la disponibilidad de agua en el conjunto de la cuenca del Ebro.

Palabras clave


Caudales; cambio climático; cambio de usos del suelo; recursos hídricos; modelo hidro-ecológico RHESSys; Pirineos; montaña mediterránea

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