Respuesta hidrológica del Pirineo central al cambio ambiental proyectado para el siglo XXI
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.3989/Pirineos.2014.169004Palabras clave:
Caudales, cambio climático, cambio de usos del suelo, recursos hídricos, modelo hidro-ecológico RHESSys, Pirineos, montaña mediterráneaResumen
Se han simulado los caudales de cinco cabeceras de ríos en los Pirineos centrales españoles, considerando diferentes escenarios de cambio climático y de uso del suelo. Los caudales fueron simulados utilizando el modelo hidroecológico RHESSys (Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System). Los resultados muestran que los cambios proyectados por un conjunto de modelos climáticos regionales en precipitaciones y temperaturas en el siglo XXI podrían causar una disminución del caudal anual entre el 13% y el 23%, dependiendo de la cuenca considerada. Cuando se añade a los efectos del cambio climático el efecto del aumento de la cubierta forestal en las cuencas, la disminución de los caudales anuales oscila entre el 19% y el 32%, dependiendo de la cuenca estudiada. Los mayores cambios hidrológicos se producirían a principios de primavera, verano y otoño, cuando la disminución puede superar el 40% respecto a los valores actuales. El invierno es la estación menos afectada como consecuencia del aumento de la escorrentía debido a una reducción del agua acumulada en forma de nieve y a un inicio más temprano de su fusión, así como por que durante los meses fríos el consumo de agua por parte de la vegetación es menor. La magnitud del cambio hidrológico, resultado de los escenarios de cambio ambiental, puede afectar seriamente a la gestión de los recursos hídricos y a las comunidades vegetales del Pirineo central, así como a la disponibilidad de agua en el conjunto de la cuenca del Ebro.
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