Climate change influence on winter tourism in the Pyrenees. Experience from the NIVOPYR research project

Abstract

In the last decades, several studies have demonstrated and given a valuable insight about the existence of a global climate change. Even though the existence of a high regional heterogeneity about the level and temporality of climate change impacts, the trends of the potential future changes on the temperature and precipitation patterns are better known and consequently the potential impacts on the Biosphere and the Cryosphere. In this context, mountain regions have been identified as highly vulnerable areas to the effects of climate change and especially interesting areas for the detection and assessment of the potential changes and impacts. Moreover, in the last few decades, winter tourism, highly dependent on weather and snow availability, has become one of the main economic activities and source of local development in many mountain regions around the world. The Pyrenees, one of the most important winter tourism areas in Europe after the Alps, is a clear example of this pattern. The aim of the NIVO PYR project, an international research project in the framework of the Working Community of the Pyrenees (CTP), is to analyze the effects of the climate change on the winter tourism, and especially alpine ski tourism, in the Pyrenees. In order to achieve this objective the project intended to joint the current knowledge about the effects of climate change on temperatures, precipitations, snow cover and skiers behavior in the Pyrenees and develop for first time objective and accurate results for this area. To achieve this goal several methods have been used including, historical analysis of climatical series evolution, assessment of different future climate change scenarios for the Pyrenees, modeling future snowpack based on surface energy balance models and agent based modeling for coupling physical and socioeconomic parameters. One of the main results of this project was the identification of different ski resorts profiles depending on their vulnerability to climate change. Three different groups were identified. The first group includes the high vulnerable ski resorts, effected both by a mid and a high-climate change scenario. The second group, includes the low vulnerable ski resorts, affected by a high-climate change scenario but able to be viable with technical adaptation measures in a mid-climate change scenario. Finally, the group of resilient ski resorts includes the geographically and socioeconomically privileged compared to the rest of Pyrenean ski resorts. These ski resorts would be viable both in a mid and a high-climate change scenario just applying technical adaptation strategies.